Updated: May 6, 2021
In 2007 and 2008
There are 3 stages in the last crisis, it started with Sub-Prime crisis, followed by Wall Street melt-down and then Lehman crisis.
Then, before the sub-prime crisis took into full effect, there were many warnings about the U.S. housing loan at an unsustainable rate.
Crisis usually started with some warnings, but mostly being ignored and when it evolved into it's full effect, the best antidote is to address it immediately with the right measures, but it would take some genius together to get this right.
The spillover effect will be even more dangerous because they are all the unknowns.
The visual in 2007-2009
The 3 small peak, it represents complacency.
Between the start of 2008 to the end of 1st quarter was the Sub-Prime crisis.
The rest of 2008, the domino took effect and spillover to Wall Street melt down.
The last dive, it was Lehman crisis.
The 3 small peak - We are at the warning stage, but mostly being ignored. This represent complacency.
What are the warnings?
We all read a lot about it, national debts, but most of us ignore it. Then in 2008, it was U.S. housing debts, today, it is national debts from most OECD countries.
The continuous uptrend of interest rates. We heard about it, but most of us do not understand the relationship between the national debts and interest rate, therefore we ignore it.
National debts dilute or weaken a currency. When your currency is weaken, you will have to pay more to buy most of your imported products. Prices increase continuously, it means inflation pick-up. And with trade war just started in full scale this May, it will not help, it will make each imported product even more costly.
One of the many strategies for today's uncertainty, sell some or most and keep cash. Keeping cash is a bad strategy? That's what my bankers, my brokers and my financial sales rep will tell me.
If your currency is a stable one, it may not be a bad idea. I will view cash as a position being parked, waiting to be deploy in awhile.